Flash Isn't Dead. It's Not Even Resting.
There’s been a lot of hubbub claiming “Flash is dead!” in various conjugations because (1) Steve Jobs says so (and he’s never wrong), and (2) HTML5 is going to replace it. (Overnight, ostensibly.)
Now, we all know how much fun it is to declare things dead before they’re dead, but surely they’re not talking about Adobe Flash, right? Not the Flash that has been the go-to technology for complex animation, video, and games on the web since it was introduced in 1996. Not the Flash with gigs of impossible-to-replace user-generated content scattered across the Internet. Not the Flash that powers your favorite games, and your favorite animations, and your favorite webapps. Not the Flash used to build all that neat, goofy stuff we all love so much. Not the Flash that runs 30%-40% of the websites on the Net, including the websites of some of the world’s most influential organizations. Not the Flash being used to make some of the most important animation on TV right now. Not that Flash. They must be talking about some other Flash. Right? I mean, come on, let’s not be ridiculous.
…What’s that? Oh, they are talking about that Flash? They are talking about the Flash with millions of hours, millions of dollars, millions of users, millions of developers, and millions of megabytes of storage and bandwidth invested in it?
Well. That’s just silly.
But even if these people are being just the teensiest bit reactionary, they have a fair point: The adoption of HTML5 features by all modern browsers is a game changer. (Well, all browsers except IE, but… Nope, I said modern browsers, we’re good.) If you’re not familiar with HTML5, it’s an emerging standard that introduces (among other things) the <canvas> tag, which lets developers draw 2D graphics on web pages using JavaScript without requiring a plugin, which I imagine could be pretty disruptive to Flash. And if you think Flash can hang on to the video market, you should probably have a look at HTML5’s <video> tag, which is designed to play video on a webpage, again without requiring a plugin. But Flash still has games, right? Yeah, about that…
It’s true: some aspects of HTML5 make Flash look downright antiquated. HTML5 uses our old friend JavaScript, automatically fails gracefully, and works out-of-the-box without requiring a plugin. But Flash won’t keel over and die just because it’s starting to look a little crusty, just like it won’t stick around just because of all the content it provides and who uses it. Flash will stick around because it’s still the right tool.
Flash is installed in 99% of all browsers, whereas less than 45% of browsers support the <canvas> tag (since IE doesn’t support <canvas>, and IE had 55% market share as of February 2010). Companies and developers will continue to use whatever technology they have to use to reach their audience. Reaching 45% of the audience just won’t do, so Flash will win every time. (And yes, there are libraries for IE that emulate <canvas> tag functionality, but they perform terribly, so they’re not really a good substitute for Flash.)
And after HTML5 closes the adoption gap, it will still have to close the skill and library gap. Flash has a group of experienced developers that is massive, sturdy, and fearsome. (HTML5, I’m talking to you.) HTML5… doesn’t. And Flash is an extremely mature language with advanced features, toolkits, and builders that make developing even complex Flash apps easy. HTML5… does, but only kind of.
Now, once adoption is about the same between the two technologies and any skill and library gaps have been closed, it’ll be a whole new ball game. And that will be fun to watch. But in the meantime, if you’re still dying to pronounce Flash dead, could you at least wait until there’s a viable replacement? Please?
All this negative buzz just means that Flash’s honeymoon period is over. The Net and Flash have been together for a long time now, and the Net is experiencing the 14-year itch. So Flash isn’t dead nearly so much as it’s just a little frumpy. But don’t forget, unfashionable technologies can still be very lucrative.
At any rate, the next interesting question in the Flash Opera is what should Adobe do to manage this situation. Funny you should ask! I have another blog in the works talking about just that topic. Check back, follow @sigpwned on Twitter, or subscribe to my feed to find out soon.
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